Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 9.895176 11.613747 13.491827 15.690011 18.185381 20.923035 24.146479
2025-02-02 7.382802 9.756110 12.609160 16.259889 20.772361 26.130241 32.932528
2025-02-09 5.796653 8.486161 11.991674 16.819226 23.207350 31.274994 42.123047
2025-02-16 4.519302 7.263146 11.108362 16.755047 24.675132 35.207007 50.052010
2025-02-23 3.503089 6.148845 10.115359 16.290832 25.414119 38.106272 56.737708
2025-03-02 2.705272 5.172387 9.117374 15.604769 25.656925 40.223621 62.394800
2025-03-09 2.217710 4.584155 8.594012 15.514251 26.689934 43.459613 69.776146
2025-03-16 1.801748 4.024358 8.010599 15.217397 27.321291 46.086406 76.379645
2025-03-23 1.626294 3.872221 8.091048 16.008048 29.723760 51.537771 87.534113
2025-03-30 1.396803 3.561064 7.830202 16.158870 31.055942 55.373428 96.400615
2025-04-06 1.192062 3.254733 7.525400 16.179057 32.141592 58.853985 104.878682
2025-04-13 1.015136 2.968494 7.211136 16.131623 33.081761 62.127361 113.177632
2025-04-20 0.963922 2.976782 7.516324 17.338912 36.433571 69.750744 129.197706
2025-04-27 0.881089 2.889566 7.608933 18.141425 39.120792 76.434717 144.079013
2025-05-04 0.798123 2.782177 7.640132 18.819745 41.627335 82.958244 159.047756
2025-05-11 0.680840 2.548506 7.343738 18.771223 42.721621 87.039996 170.038112
2025-05-18 0.558057 2.261135 6.867413 18.267242 42.858897 89.383870 178.100625
2025-05-25 0.445411 1.966449 6.315141 17.513273 42.404397 90.582766 184.162447
2025-06-01 0.378445 1.800258 6.063095 17.414259 43.284719 94.313971 194.947230
2025-06-08 0.314033 1.619171 5.734995 17.087018 43.640644 97.047925 204.022562
2025-06-15 0.295932 1.608945 5.887799 17.959263 46.667230 105.124249 223.367334
2025-06-22 0.259544 1.511732 5.767982 18.125594 48.134406 110.193262 237.269122
2025-06-29 0.224399 1.405678 5.601079 18.147862 49.273164 114.660140 250.218598